BTC Regime Index — Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
📈 Current Economic Mood — When bank interest rates fall and the dollar weakens, people want to put more money into places like Bitcoin — volatile, but with bigger potential upside. So this score is based on rates and the dollar. 50 is average; higher means a mood favorable for Bitcoin.
⛏️ Halving Effect — Bitcoin has an event called "halving" where the amount newly mined gets cut in half on a set schedule. Interest often grows around this time, so the score rises the closer it gets to a halving. Right now, the next halving is far off, so this score stays at neutral (50).
🧮 Base Score — This score combines the two above (economic mood + halving effect). News and policy aren't factored in yet at this stage.
📰 Policy News Impact — Good news, like an ETF approval, raises the score; bad news, like tighter regulation, lowers it. The impact is strongest right after news breaks and gradually fades over time. For recent periods, we also automatically analyze Google Trends search volume to gauge how much public attention to policy issues is rising or falling. You can see which news is currently affecting the score in the "Policy News List" below.
🔊 Big-News Sensitivity — This is a device that barely reacts to small news but sharply reflects truly big news in the final score.
| Date | What happened | Category | Impact | Duration |
|---|
| Date | BTC Close | Regime Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | $81,689 | 46.2 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-07 | $83,325 | 45.8 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-06 | $85,556 | 45.8 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-05 | $85,748 | 45.5 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-04 | $86,011 | 45.6 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-03 | $84,764 | 45.6 | 🟡 Neutral |
| 2026-10-02 | $84,497 | 45.6 | 🟡 Neutral |
Based on the latest 30 daily readings, the BTC Regime score (0–100) averaged 46.0, with a high of 47.0 and a low of 45.4.
This indicator doesn't try to guess "what price Bitcoin is now" — it's a reference tool showing whether now is a favorable time to buy. It combines big economic trends (U.S. Treasury yields, real rates, the dollar) and Bitcoin's halving cycle into a base score, and
then factors in real policy news — ETF approvals, country-level regulation, government announcements — to compute a final score (0-100). Big news moves the score a lot; minor news barely moves it at all.
It's split into 5 levels: 60+ is "Excellent," under 40 is "Poor," and 45-55 is a "Neutral" zone with no clear direction.
Should I buy Bitcoin right now?
The BTC Regime Index gives a 0-100 score. 60+ means macro conditions, the halving cycle, and policy news together favor Bitcoin; under 40 means they don't. This is a reference indicator, not a guaranteed buy/sell signal — investment decisions are your own responsibility.
How do you determine Bitcoin buy timing?
We combine three factors into a 0-100 score: U.S. interest rates and dollar trends (macro), Bitcoin's halving cycle, and real policy news like ETF approvals or regulation. The more favorable all three are, the higher the score.
How is BTC Regime Index different from the Fear & Greed Index?
The Fear & Greed Index mainly measures market sentiment (volatility, volume, social media buzz). BTC Regime Index instead looks at fundamentals: macro data like rates and the dollar, the halving cycle, and real policy events. The two indices don't always point the same direction.
What does Bitcoin risk-on/risk-off mean?
'Risk-on' means investors are actively favoring risky assets like Bitcoin; 'risk-off' means they're avoiding risk and favoring safe assets instead. BTC Regime Index shows this mood in 5 levels, from excellent to poor.
How does the Bitcoin halving affect price?
The halving is an event where newly mined Bitcoin supply is cut in half. Historically, interest and price gains have often appeared in the roughly two-year window around a halving, as new supply shrinks. BTC Regime Index factors this cycle into its score.
How accurate is this indicator?
Backtesting on real 2016-2026 data shows that buying in the 'Excellent' zone led to an average +30% return after 90 days (76% win rate), while the 'Poor' zone averaged -20%. This is historical data only and doesn't guarantee future results — see the 'Historical Returns' section on the page for full figures.
