TACO Index Real-Time Dashboard
The TACO Index measures the probability of Trump policy reversals (TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out) from multiple angles. It combines approval rating decline, VIX, rates, dollar, and oil into a composite stress score from 1–6. Above 4.2 is high-risk.
※ For periods before Trump's inauguration (~Dec 2024), approval rating data is unavailable and a neutral value (45%) is used. The TACO Index for those periods reflects only VIX, interest rates, DXY, WTI, and S&P500 momentum.
TACO Index
Higher score = higher probability of Trump policy reversal (tariff relief, Fed pressure, etc.).
😏 Markets Stable
Stage 2 · 2.36점
Approval 36.0%, disapproval 59.8%, risk score 0.50. VIX 15.45 is stable, but falling approval warrants monitoring.
2.36 / 6
| Trump Approve Below 40% = intensifying political pressure. Key variable for policy reversal risk |
36.0% | |
| Trump Disapprove Opposition strength. Higher = weaker justification for policy continuity |
59.8% | |
| Approval Risk Score Normalized 0–1. Above 0.7 = high-risk zone |
0.50 | |
| VIX Fear index. Above 20 = anxiety, above 30 = panic. Higher = greater TACO risk ↑ |
15.45 | |
| US 10Y Yield Rate spike = fiscal burden ↑ = higher cost of maintaining policy |
4.64% | |
| DXY Dollar Index Strong dollar pressures emerging markets. Tends to fall when Trump softens policy |
98.96 | |
| WTI Crude Oil Oil spike = inflation pressure = weakens justification for policy continuity |
$80.12 |
TACO Stage Interpretation
Stage 1 (0~1.7)
🕊 Peace
🕊 Peace
High policy continuity. Markets stable.
Stage 2 (1.7~3.0)
😏 Markets Stable
😏 Markets Stable
Policy pressure rising. Monitor approval decline.
Stage 3 (3.0~4.2)
😑 Seeking Exit Strategy
😑 Seeking Exit Strategy
Policy adjustment risk rising. Strengthen risk management.
Stage 4 (4.2~6.0)
😡 About to Execute Exit
😡 About to Execute Exit
⚠️ TACO MODE ON — High reversal risk. Immediate action required.
TACO Index · S&P500 1Y Trend
TACO Index · S&P500
TACO Index vs S&P500 correlation
TACO Index · NASDAQ 100 1Y Trend
TACO Index · NASDAQ 100
TACO Index vs NASDAQ 100 correlation
TACO Index + KOSPI Index
TACO Index full history
What Is the TACO INDEX?
The TACO Index stands for Trump Always Chickens Out — a macro indicator that quantifies in real time the likelihood of President Trump reversing his own policies. It measures the probability of tariff relief, Fed-pressure retreat, or walking back hawkish rhetoric using 5 combined signals: approval rating, market fear index, interest rates, the dollar, and oil prices.
Scores range from 1 to 6. A reading of 4.2 (Stage 4) or higher marks a high-risk zone for policy reversal. When the TACO Index enters this zone, stocks tend to rally, the dollar tends to weaken, and bonds tend to rise. The index updates automatically after each US market close.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. How should I interpret the TACO Index score?
Stage 1–2 (1–3 pts) indicates high policy continuity, Stage 3 (3–4.2 pts) indicates rising pressure, and Stage 4 (4.2+ pts) indicates high risk of policy reversal. The higher the score, the more likely Trump is to walk back his current hardline stance.
Q. What data is the TACO Index calculated from?
It's a weighted composite of 6 indicators: Trump's approval rating, the VIX fear index, the US 10-year Treasury yield, the DXY dollar index, WTI crude oil, and S&P 500 momentum.
Q. Why does the TACO Index matter for investing?
Trump's policy shifts directly affect stocks, bonds, and commodities through tariff, rate, and dollar channels. The TACO Index can be used as a leading indicator of these shifts.
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