REALTIME MACRO INDICATOR

TACO Index Tracker: Real-Time Trump Policy Reversal Risk

The TACO Index measures the probability of Trump policy reversals (TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out) from multiple angles. It combines approval rating decline, VIX, rates, dollar, and oil into a composite stress score from 0–100%. 70% or higher is high-risk.

※ For periods before Trump's inauguration (~Dec 2024), approval rating data is unavailable and a neutral value (45%) is used. The TACO Index for those periods reflects only VIX, interest rates, DXY, WTI, and S&P500 momentum.

TACO Index

Higher score = higher probability of Trump policy reversal (tariff relief, Fed pressure, etc.).

😑 Seeking Exit Strategy

Stage 3 · 60%

Approval at 34.6% — downward pressure building. VIX 15.06, rates 5.27%: composite stress rising. Risk management advised.

60%

Trump Approve Below 40% = intensifying political pressure. Key variable for policy reversal risk	34.6%
Trump Disapprove Opposition strength. Higher = weaker justification for policy continuity	62.2%
Approval Risk Score Normalized 0–1. Above 0.7 = high-risk zone	0.85
VIX Fear index. Above 20 = anxiety, above 30 = panic. Higher = greater TACO risk ↑	15.06
US 10Y Yield Rate spike = fiscal burden ↑ = higher cost of maintaining policy	5.27%
DXY Dollar Index Strong dollar pressures emerging markets. Tends to fall when Trump softens policy	102.31
WTI Crude Oil Oil spike = inflation pressure = weakens justification for policy continuity	$91.39

TACO Stage Interpretation

Stage 1 (0~28%)
🕊 Peace

High policy continuity. Markets stable.

Stage 2 (28~50%)
😏 Markets Stable

Policy pressure rising. Monitor approval decline.

Stage 3 (50~70%)
😑 Seeking Exit Strategy

Policy adjustment risk rising. Strengthen risk management.

Stage 4 (70~100%)
😡 About to Execute Exit

⚠️ TACO MODE ON — High reversal risk. Immediate action required.

TACO Index · S&P500 1Y Trend

TACO Index · S&P500

TACO Index vs S&P500 correlation

TACO Index · NASDAQ 100 1Y Trend

TACO Index · NASDAQ 100

TACO Index vs NASDAQ 100 correlation

TACO Index + KOSPI Index

TACO Index full history

TACO Strategy Backtest

After TACO reaches 60, buy with all cash within 20 trading days once the asset’s drawdown from its 1-year high reaches its own threshold (volatility-based: the drop with a 25% chance of being touched within 20 trading days) → sell 1/4 when it regains its prior peak, and 1/4 more after 3 consecutive closing highs.

Asset	Strategy	Buy & Hold	Max DD (Strat/BM)	Buys / Sells	Drawdown trigger

Dots: blue = entry (buy all), red = prior peak reached (sell 1/4), yellow = 3 straight closing highs (sell 1/4). Click a legend item to toggle a line.

Trade log

Date	Type	Price (close)

This card shows historical backtest results for informational and educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset, nor investment advice. Conditions: fills at the next trading-day close after the signal; fees, taxes and slippage excluded; idle cash earns 0%; periods are counted back from today. Past performance does not guarantee future results; investment decisions and responsibility are your own. * = fewer than 60 trading days before the period; default (-7%) used. The drawdown level is a statistical yardstick from past volatility, not a guaranteed probability.

What Is the TACO INDEX?

The TACO Index stands for Trump Always Chickens Out — a macro indicator that quantifies in real time the likelihood of President Trump reversing his own policies. It measures the probability of tariff relief, Fed-pressure retreat, or walking back hawkish rhetoric using combined signals: approval rating, market fear index, interest rates, the dollar, and oil prices.

Scores range from 0% to 100%. A reading of 70% (Stage 4) or higher marks a high-risk zone for policy reversal. When the TACO Index enters this zone, stocks tend to rally, the dollar tends to weaken, and bonds tend to rise. The index updates automatically after each US market close.

Trump TACO comes from a market observation that a cycle of “hardline threat → stock sell-off → policy retreat → rebound” keeps repeating. This TACO tracker lets you check that pattern with numbers instead of gut feeling, showing the TACO Index alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q. What does TACO mean? What are “Trump TACO” and the TACO trade?

TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — a market term for the pattern where President Trump makes hardline tariff or trade threats, then backs off when markets sell off sharply. It is reported to have been coined by a financial columnist in May 2025, and trading around that pattern is called the “TACO trade.” The TACO Index on this page turns that likelihood into a 0–100% score using approval rating, VIX, rates, the dollar, oil and S&P 500 momentum.

Q. How should I interpret the TACO Index score?

Stage 1–2 (0–50%) indicates high policy continuity, Stage 3 (50–70%) indicates rising pressure, and Stage 4 (70%+) indicates high risk of policy reversal. The higher the score, the more likely Trump is to walk back his current hardline stance.

Q. What data is the TACO Index calculated from?

It's a weighted composite of 6 indicators: Trump's approval rating, the VIX fear index, the US 10-year Treasury yield, the DXY dollar index, WTI crude oil, and S&P 500 momentum.

Q. Why does the TACO Index matter for investing?

Trump's policy shifts directly affect stocks, bonds, and commodities through tariff, rate, and dollar channels. The TACO Index can be used as a leading indicator of these shifts.

Q. Where can I check the TACO Index, and how often is it updated?

You can check it for free on this page. It updates automatically once a day after the US market close, and the charts below let you compare its history with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Q. Can I make investment decisions based on the TACO Index alone?

No. The TACO Index is a reference indicator that combines public market and polling data with fixed weights; it does not predict policy reversals or guarantee returns. For periods before Trump's inauguration (~Dec 2024) approval data is unavailable and a neutral value is used. Investment decisions and responsibility are yours.