When to Buy NASDAQ? — Dip-Buying Timing Analysis
NASDAQ — When to Buy? MDD (Maximum Drawdown) shows how far an asset has fallen from its peak. The larger the drawdown, the better the Buy-the-Dip opportunity. Displayed in 6 stages from Stage 1 (near peak) to Stage 6 (drop of 20%+).
※ Full historical data is available from 2014.
MDD Buy the Dip · S&P 500
S&P500 drawdown from peak. Higher drawdown = stronger buy signal.
-0.34%
Buy Signal Stage 1
Near Peak (-3% 이내)
Stage 12345Stage 6
| Current PriceS&P500 close | 7,792.52 |
| Drawdown from PeakBased on 52-week high. Consider DCA from -10%+ | -0.34% |
| Buy StrengthStage 1 (near peak, no buy) ~ Stage 6 (-20%+, aggressive buy) | 1 / 6 |
MDD Buy the Dip · NASDAQ 100
NASDAQ 100 drawdown from peak. Use for timing AI & growth stock entries.
-1.27%
Buy Signal Stage 1
Near Peak (-3% 이내)
Stage 12345Stage 6
| Current PriceNDX100 close | 30,829.38 |
| Drawdown from PeakBased on 52-week high. Consider DCA from -10%+ | -1.27% |
| Buy StrengthStage 1 (near peak, no buy) ~ Stage 6 (-20%+, aggressive buy) | 1 / 6 |
MDD Stage Buy Strength Guide
S&P 500 Basis
Stage 1 · 0% ~ -3%
Near Peak
No additional buy needed. Hold current position.
Stage 2 · -3% ~ -7%
Minor Pullback
Short-term dip. Start watching.
Stage 3 · -7% ~ -12%
Correction Entry
Normal correction. First DCA entry.
Stage 4 · -12% ~ -25%
Shock Correction
War/rate shock/oil shock early stage. Expand DCA.
Stage 5 · -25% ~ -50%
Crisis Correction
COVID/oil shock/major recession level. Consider aggressive buy.
Stage 6 · -50%+
Collapse
Subprime/dotcom/Great Depression level. Strong long-term buy.
NASDAQ 100 Basis
Stage 1 · 0% ~ -3%
Near Peak
No additional buy needed. Hold current position.
Stage 2 · -3% ~ -7%
Minor Pullback
Short-term dip. Start watching.
Stage 3 · -7% ~ -12%
Correction Entry
Normal correction. First DCA entry.
Stage 4 · -12% ~ -25%
Shock Correction
War/rate shock/oil shock early stage. Expand DCA.
Stage 5 · -25% ~ -50%
Crisis Correction
COVID/oil shock/major recession level. Consider aggressive buy.
Stage 6 · -50%+
Collapse
Dotcom/Great Depression level. Strong long-term buy.
📚 Historical Crisis MDD Reference
Knowing how much markets fell in past crises puts today's drawdown in context.
| Crisis Event | Period | S&P500 MDD | NDX MDD | S&P Stage | NDX Stage |
| Oil Shock (1st) | 1973~1974 | -48% | N/A | 5단계 | — |
| Black Monday | 1987 | -34% | -35% | 5단계 | 5단계 |
| Dotcom Crash | 2000~2002 | -47% | -83% | 5단계 | 6단계 |
| Subprime Financial Crisis | 2007~2009 | -57% | -54% | 6단계 | 6단계 |
| COVID Crash | 2020.02~03 | -34% | -32% | 5단계 | 5단계 |
| Rate Shock Bear Market | 2022 | -25% | -35% | 4단계 | 5단계 |
* MDD = peak-to-trough for each crisis. NDX launched 1985; no data for 1st Oil Shock.
S&P500 · MDD Index 1Y Trend
S&P500 MDD
S&P500 Drawdown from Peak Stage
NASDAQ 100 · MDD Index 1Y Trend
NASDAQ 100 MDD
NASDAQ 100 Drawdown from Peak Stage
Last 7 Days
| Date | NDX100 close | Drawdown from Peak | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 30,829.38 | -1.27% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | 30,725.81 | -1.60% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | 31,160.08 | -0.21% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | 31,224.47 | 0.00% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | 31,076.44 | 0.00% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | 30,807.93 | 0.00% | Stage 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | 30,501.56 | -0.75% | Stage 1 |
Based on the latest 30 daily readings, the Nasdaq 100 drawdown averaged -2.5%, with the shallowest at 0.0% and the deepest at -5.6%.
What Is the NASDAQ/S&P500 MDD Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy?
The MDD (Maximum Drawdown) based DCA strategy gradually increases your buy weight based on how far the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) or S&P 500 has fallen from its peak. Since it's impossible to time the exact bottom, the strategy increases the buy amount as the drawdown deepens, lowering your average entry price.
NASDAQ is tech-heavy, so it's rate-sensitive and volatile, but it has shown a strong long-term uptrend. Historical data shows investors who started DCA at MDD Stage 4 (-10 to -15%) or beyond achieved higher long-term returns.
📌 Major Historical NASDAQ Crashes
2000–2002 Dotcom Bubble — NDX -83%, S&P500 -47%
2007–2009 Financial Crisis — NDX -54%, S&P500 -57%
2022 Rate Hike Shock — NDX -35%, S&P500 -25%
2020 COVID Crash — NDX -32%, followed by an all-time high
S&P500 has lower volatility and better diversification than NASDAQ, making it suitable for conservative investors. We recommend checking both indices together for a broader market view.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q. At what percentage drop should I buy NASDAQ?
Historical data shows starting DCA at -10%+ from peak (Stage 3) and increasing weight at -15%+ (Stage 4) has been effective. However, cases like the dotcom bubble fell over -80%, so diversification is essential.
Q. Should I invest in S&P500 or NASDAQ?
NASDAQ is tech-focused with high growth potential but also high volatility. S&P500 consists of 500 large-cap stocks, offering better diversification and lower volatility. Aggressive investors may prefer NASDAQ, conservative investors S&P500, and mixing both is also a good approach.
Q. Should I always buy when MDD gets higher?
A higher MDD signals a higher chance of being undervalued relative to history, but also carries further downside risk. Rather than investing a large amount at once, a DCA strategy that scales up investment as MDD stage rises reduces risk. Indicators on this page are for reference only; final decisions are the investor's responsibility.
Q. When should I buy after a NASDAQ crash?
Starting DCA at -10%+ from peak (Stage 4) and increasing weight at -15%+ (Stage 5) has historically been effective. Pay attention once this page's MDD stage reaches 4+, but if VIX remains above 25, further downside risk exists, so avoid investing a large amount at once.
Q. How should I respond to a -5% NASDAQ drop?
A short-term -5% drop is only Stage 1-2 on the MDD scale, not yet a clear buying opportunity. Consider starting small DCA once MDD reaches Stage 3 (-7 to -10%), and slow your entry pace when VIX is above 25 for better risk management.
Q. How can I confirm a NASDAQ rebound signal?
Check these 3 key rebound signals: ① VIX stabilizing below 25 — fear subsiding and foreign capital returning ② US 10-year yield turning down or stabilizing — easing tech valuation pressure ③ S&P500 MDD stage declining — broad market recovery signal. When all three align, this page's MDD stage begins to fall.
